Mambilla Hydroelectric Power Project

Conceived in 1972 to Deliver 3,050MW Clean Energy, Donga River Dam Stalled Across Five Decades of Backroom Approvals, Kickbacks, and Broken Settlements

Paris Tribunal Throws Out $2.35bn Claim by Leno Adesanya’s Sunrise Power, Orders Promoters to Refund $11.82m Defense Bill

Landmark Ruling Lifts Multilateral Financing Blockade but Exposes 5,000MW Transmission Ceiling and Massive Capital Deficits

For 54 years, the Mambilla Hydroelectric Power Project in Taraba State was supposed to be the definitive answer to Nigeria’s crippling power shortages.

Surveyors first mapped the fast-moving waters of the Donga River basin back in 1972, projecting that a multi-dam cascade across the Gembu plateau could generate 3,050 megawatts of clean, reliable baseload electricity. That single installation would have almost doubled the total output of Nigeria’s national grid, keeping factories running and ending endless load-shedding cycles.

Instead, the project turned into a cautionary tale of sovereign extortion and administrative deceit. A controversial 2003 Build-Operate-Transfer deal awarded to Sunrise Power and Transmission Company Limited tied the asset down in courts and international arbitral halls for decades, finally ending on Thursday when the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris threw out Sunrise’s $2.35 billion claim against the Nigerian government in its entirety.

The 1972 Blueprint and the Disputed 2003 Award

Topographical surveys for Mambilla started under the military administration of General Yakubu Gowon. International hydrology experts mapped out four massive interconnected reservoirs designed to drop water thousands of feet into high-head underground turbines.

Subsequent military regimes funded detailed feasibility studies throughout the 1970s and 1980s. Yet, every budget cycle ended without real capital allocations, leaving the engineering plans gathering dust inside the Federal Ministry of Power.

Things took a disastrous turn on May 22, 2003, in the final days of President Olusegun Obasanjo’s first term.

Just 24 hours after the Federal Executive Council formally declined to approve the project, outgoing Minister of Power Dr. Olu Agunloye unilaterally signed a letter awarding a $6 billion BOT contract to Sunrise Power, an obscure corporate vehicle fronted by businessman Leno Adesanya.

Obasanjo repudiated the contract, pointing out that it bypassed mandatory FEC approval, lacked financial guarantees from the Federal Ministry of Finance, and defied explicit presidential directives.

The project sat dead in the water for 14 years.

Tensions boiled over in November 2017 when the Federal Ministry of Power signed a fresh $5.8 billion Engineering, Procurement, and Construction agreement with a Chinese consortium comprising Sinohydro Corporation, China Gezhouba Group Corporation, and China Geo-Engineering Corporation.

The deal relied on an 85 percent project loan from the Export-Import Bank of China, with Nigeria expected to put up $870 million in counterpart funds.

Sunrise Power struck back on October 10, 2017, dragging the Federal Government to the ICC International Court of Arbitration in Paris. The company demanded $2.354 billion for alleged breach of contractual exclusivity.

Desperate to lift the legal blockade stalling Chinese loan disbursements, federal officials under President Muhammadu Buhari negotiated an out-of-court settlement in early 2020, promising to pay Sunrise $200 million, backed by a punitive $200 million default clause.

The deal collapsed when the Federal Ministry of Justice and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission intervened, citing glaring evidence of official fraud. Buhari refused to approve payments, prompting Sunrise to haul Nigeria back to the Paris tribunal for the full payout.

What Happened at the ICC: Adesanya Held Personally Liable

The final award handed down on Thursday by the three-member Paris tribunal, led by Melaine van Leeuwen alongside co-arbitrators Stavros Brekoulakis and Simon Nesbitt, dismissed Sunrise Power’s demands on every count.

The tribunal rejected Sunrise’s bid to enforce the $400 million liability, throwing out both the $200 million baseline deal and the $200 million default penalty.

The arbitrators went further. They ruled that Leno Adesanya was personally bound by the dispute resolution clauses, granting the tribunal full jurisdiction over Nigeria’s counterclaims against both the man and his corporate shell.

In scathing findings, the arbitral panel described Adesanya’s operations as a decades-long campaign of bad-faith attempts to extract public money from the Nigerian treasury through corruption and illicit influence across successive political administrations.

The award directs the ICC to hand over $2.5 million held in escrow straight to the Nigerian government. Sunrise and Adesanya have been ordered to pay the remaining $9.32 million balance, plus 10 percent interest compounded annually until every cent is settled.

What This Means for Nigeria’s Grid and the Struggle for Stable Power

Throwing out Sunrise Power’s claims removes the legal embargo that paralyzed Mambilla for decades.

China Exim Bank and other international lenders had refused to disburse a single dollar for site preparation, citing legal risks, contested land rights, and the constant threat of international asset seizures

With the legal clouds cleared, does this mean steady electricity is finally around the corner? Far from it.

Nigeria generates less than 5,000 megawatts of electricity for over 220 million people on any given day. Thermal gas plants account for more than 75 percent of that meager output, leaving the system at the mercy of pipeline breaks, vandalism, and multi-billion-naira gas supply debts.

A fully realized Mambilla project would provide clean, non-gas baseload power, stabilizing the frequency of the national grid.

However, building a multi-dam hydroelectric facility across the rugged terrain of the Gembu plateau is a massive civil engineering project. Even if financing and construction contracts were signed today, building the dams, digging the water tunnels, and installing the underground turbines will take between six to nine years.

Then there is the problem of getting the power across the country.

The national transmission network, run by the state-owned Transmission Company of Nigeria, routinely collapses whenever generation nears 5,000MW.

Evacuating 3,000MW from remote Taraba to factories and cities in Kano, Kaduna, and Lagos requires high-capacity 765kV super-grid transmission corridors that simply do not exist today.

The Paris arbitration panel prevented a fiscal catastrophe that could have devastated foreign exchange reserves and tarnished sovereign credit ratings. But beating Sunrise Power only secures the land. Turning the Donga River into electricity will take billions of dollars, disciplined engineering, and an overhauled national grid.