Nigeria’s 2027 presidential race may still be wide open for a sizeable bloc of voters, with 44 per cent of eligible voters yet to settle on a preferred candidate, even as a fresh Yiaga Africa survey shows strong interest in the election.
The organisation’s latest National Voting Intentions Survey (NVIS 3.0) found that 84 per cent of Nigerians surveyed said they were likely or very likely to vote in the 2027 general elections.
But beneath the apparent enthusiasm lies a major warning for political parties and candidates: only 41 per cent were both likely to vote and very certain of their candidate choice.
The survey, conducted in September 2026, covered 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, using telephone interviews and face-to-face engagements in rural communities.
The findings suggest that while Nigerians are showing a strong appetite to participate, commitment to the ballot remains vulnerable to insecurity, distrust of electoral institutions and the influence of money.
FEAR SHADOWS 2027 POLLS
Security emerged as one of the biggest threats to actual voter turnout.
Yiaga Africa found that 61 per cent of respondents said fear of violence could prevent them from voting, while the survey identified insecurity as the leading barrier to participation.
The survey also revealed a sharp trust deficit surrounding the electoral umpire, with only 34 per cent of respondents expressing confidence that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would conduct credible elections.
That figure represents a decline from 45 per cent recorded in each of the first two rounds of Yiaga Africa’s survey.
The contrast is striking: Nigerians increasingly say they want to vote, but fewer appear confident that the electoral environment will allow them to do so freely and credibly.
CHANGE TOPS VOTER MOTIVATION
The desire for a change in leadership emerged as the leading motivation for voting, cited by 49 per cent of respondents.
Civic duty followed at 20 per cent, while support for a specific candidate accounted for 16 per cent and party loyalty 11 per cent.
The economy and jobs, security, corruption and governance also ranked among the issues voters consider most important ahead of the election.
The survey found that social media has become the most influential source of information shaping voting decisions, cited by 58 per cent of respondents. Television followed with 46 per cent, radio 45 per cent and online news 29 per cent.
NORTH-CENTRAL LEADS VOTING INTENTION
By geopolitical zone, the North-Central recorded the highest reported voting intention at 57 per cent, followed by the South-West at 54 per cent, North-East at 52 per cent and South-South at 33 per cent.
Yiaga Africa said the latest findings should not be interpreted as voter apathy, but rather as evidence that Nigerians remain interested in elections while facing significant barriers to participation.
Safiya Bichi, Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, said Nigerians had not abandoned the electoral process.
“What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money,” Bichi said.
The survey also found that while overall willingness to vote has rebounded, the proportion of respondents who said they were “very likely” to vote has continued to edge downward — from 52 per cent in December 2025 to 48 per cent in March 2026 and 47 per cent in September 2026.
With the presidential contest expected to pit President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) against major opposition contenders including Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), the survey points to a substantial pool of voters whose final choices remain unsettled.
Rather than offering a prediction of the election outcome, the findings highlight the importance of security, electoral credibility and voter confidence in determining whether stated willingness translates into actual participation.
Yiaga Africa’s report therefore presents the 2027 race as a contest not only for votes, but also for the confidence of voters who are yet to make up their minds — and for institutions capable of getting them safely to the ballot box.
