- Reveals 27 Economic Subsectors Grew Above 3% In Q2/26
- Naira Appreciated By Over 12% In First Half 2026
- CPPE: Nigeria’s Economic Growth Must Lift Businesses, Workers, Households
Nigeria’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy by 2030 is beginning to look less like a distant aspiration and more like an achievable target, following fresh evidence of stronger and broader economic growth.
The Federal Ministry of Finance, in a statement on Tuesday, said the economy expanded by 4.43 per cent in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025 and 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.
The latest figures have strengthened the Federal Government’s argument that its economic reforms are beginning to generate the momentum required to propel Nigeria towards the trillion-dollar milestone.
For the first half of 2026, real GDP growth averaged 4.16 per cent, compared with 3.68 per cent in the first half of 2025.
But beyond the headline GDP figure, the government is pointing to a more important development — the widening base of the recovery.
According to the Ministry of Finance, 27 economic subsectors recorded real growth of more than three per cent in Q2 2026, compared with 23 subsectors during the same period last year.
Manufacturing, Agriculture Join Growth Party
Manufacturing, one of the sectors critical to Nigeria’s ambition of building a larger productive economy, recorded a sharp improvement.
The sector grew by 3.24 per cent, more than twice the 1.60 per cent recorded in Q2 2025.
Agriculture also accelerated significantly, expanding by 4.39 per cent, compared with 2.82 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
Services, which remains the biggest contributor to economic activity, grew by 4.60 per cent, up from 3.94 per cent.
The combination of stronger manufacturing, agriculture and services growth provides the government with a broader foundation for sustained expansion, rather than relying overwhelmingly on a single sector.
Naira Appreciation Boosts Dollar Value
Another factor strengthening the government’s trillion-dollar argument is the performance of the naira.
The Ministry of Finance said the currency appreciated by more than 12 per cent between the first half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, helping to increase the estimated dollar value of Nigeria’s economy by about 17 per cent over the period.
The ministry argued that if the trend continues alongside the government’s social programmes, stronger economic performance could eventually translate into improved purchasing power and higher incomes for Nigerians.
IMF Ranking Adds Fresh Confidence
The Federal Government is also drawing confidence from international projections.
The ministry said the International Monetary Fund had ranked Nigeria among the top 10 contributors to global real GDP growth in 2026, with the country projected to account for roughly 1.5 per cent of global growth this year.
It said sustained macroeconomic stability, continued expansion in productive sectors and rising investor confidence could put Nigeria on course to become Africa’s largest economy by 2028.
The ultimate prize, however, is the government’s $1 trillion economy target by 2030.
While reaching the milestone will require several years of sustained growth, increased investment, stronger productivity and continued exchange-rate stability, the latest figures provide the administration with fresh ammunition to argue that the target remains within reach.
The Ministry of Finance cautioned that maintaining the momentum would depend heavily on policy consistency and sustaining the economic reforms already underway.
“These results underscore the importance of sustaining our reforms and ensuring policy consistency as their benefits begin to reach households across the country,” the ministry said.
For Nigeria, therefore, the race to $1 trillion will not be won by GDP growth alone. It will depend on whether the current expansion can be sustained, translated into productive investment and, ultimately, converted into higher incomes and better living standards for ordinary Nigerians.
Meanwhike, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has welcomed Nigeria’s acceleration in economic growth but warned that the latest GDP gains must translate into more jobs, higher household incomes and improved living standards.
The CPPE, in a policy brief on the second-quarter 2026 GDP report, said the economy’s 4.43 per cent real growth was a strong indication that Nigeria was gaining momentum after a difficult period of macroeconomic adjustment.
The CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the performance was encouraging but warned that government must now focus on ensuring that growth is widely felt across households and businesses.
“The priority now is to broaden these gains, strengthen employment-intensive sectors and ensure that improving output translates into better living standards,” Yusuf said.
According to the CPPE, the improvement was supported by stronger oil production and broad-based expansion in agriculture, mining, construction, trade, refining, financial services, real estate and other services.
The oil sector recorded a dramatic improvement, with growth jumping from 2.57 per cent in Q1 to 7.31 per cent in Q2, while average crude oil production increased from 1.55 million barrels per day to 1.72 million barrels per day.
The non-oil economy also accelerated from 3.94 per cent to 4.31 per cent, while the services sector expanded by 4.60 per cent and accounted for 56.62 per cent of real GDP.
The private-sector think tank said the performance suggested that improved foreign-exchange stability, stronger oil output, rising investor confidence and better corporate performance were beginning to support economic recovery.
It, however, cautioned against policy reversals.
“Abrupt policy reversals would risk renewed instability, weaken confidence and undermine fiscal and foreign-exchange gains,” the CPPE warned.
Refining, Mining, Agriculture Lead Expansion
The organisation highlighted strong performances across several productive sectors, describing them as evidence of a broadening recovery.
Mining and quarrying accelerated from 1.89 per cent to 6.37 per cent, while agriculture rose from 3.15 per cent to 4.39 per cent. Livestock growth surged from 2.20 per cent to 6.92 per cent.
Construction expanded from 6.38 per cent to 6.75 per cent, trade rose from 2.08 per cent to 2.40 per cent, financial and insurance services climbed from 8.54 per cent to 9.29 per cent, while real estate jumped from 2.29 per cent to 3.76 per cent.
Domestic refining remained one of the biggest growth engines, recording a staggering 43.94 per cent expansion, after 37.46 per cent growth in Q1.
Cement grew by 12.75 per cent, chemicals and pharmaceuticals by 7.70 per cent, accommodation and food services by 6.96 per cent, while arts and entertainment expanded by 11.93 per cent.
The CPPE said the broad spread of growth provided “a useful platform for a more diversified recovery,” but stressed that infrastructure, investment-friendly policies and stronger value chains would be critical to making the gains sustainable.
Power Crisis Threatens Recovery
Despite the encouraging GDP figures, the CPPE identified electricity as one of the biggest threats to Nigeria’s economic expansion.
Electricity, gas and steam contracted by 10.63 per cent in Q2, although the decline was an improvement on the 15.30 per cent contraction recorded in Q1.
The group said the power sector required urgent intervention because reliable electricity would reduce production costs across manufacturing, agriculture, mining, ICT, logistics and services.
“The broader recovery would receive a major boost from a turnaround in electricity,” the CPPE said, urging government to make power-sector reform a central pillar of its industrial and investment strategy.
It called for increased investment in generation, transmission and distribution, while urging authorities to address gas-supply constraints, improve market liquidity and deepen metering and commercial discipline.
Manufacturing, ICT Remain Resilient
Manufacturing remained in positive territory at 3.24 per cent, only marginally below the 3.29 per cent recorded in Q1.
The CPPE described the performance as significant given persistent energy, financing and logistics costs confronting manufacturers.
Information and communication technology remained one of the strongest-performing areas, growing by 9.62 per cent, with telecommunications recording an impressive 10.38 per cent expansion.
Transport and storage also maintained strong growth at 5.70 per cent, although this was down from 7.41 per cent in Q1.
The organisation said these sectors had extensive links with production, distribution, consumer demand and employment, making them critical to sustaining the recovery.
Textiles, Automotive Sectors Need Urgent Support
The CPPE also drew attention to sectors that continued to struggle despite the broader improvement.
Textiles, apparel and footwear contracted by 1.23 per cent, while motor-vehicle assembly declined by 1.02 per cent.
Quarrying and other minerals recorded a sharp 39.13 per cent contraction after strong growth in Q1.
The think tank said textiles deserved particular attention because of its potential to create jobs and strengthen linkages between cotton farming, ginning, fashion, retail and exports.
CPPE Demands Jobs, Income-Focused Growth
The organisation said the ultimate test of Nigeria’s economic recovery should not be GDP growth alone but whether ordinary Nigerians experience tangible improvements in their economic conditions.
“Policy success should therefore build on the positive headline GDP outcome by tracking the number and quality of jobs created, movements in real household incomes, MSME survival and expansion, agricultural yields, manufacturing value added, non-oil exports and poverty reduction,” CPPE said.
It urged government to align fiscal, monetary, trade and industrial policies around competitiveness, productive investment and job creation.
The group also called for cheaper and longer-term financing for businesses, improved infrastructure, targeted agricultural support, lower logistics costs and stronger social protection for vulnerable households.
It proposed that government publish an inclusive-growth dashboard alongside quarterly GDP reports to track employment, real wages, poverty-sensitive inflation, MSME performance, agricultural yields, manufacturing output, electricity supplied to productive users, non-oil exports and private investment.
The CPPE said Nigeria could progressively raise economic growth towards 6–7 per cent, provided reforms were sustained and investment was channelled towards sectors with strong employment and domestic value-chain multipliers.
“The economy is clearly moving in a more positive direction. The next task is to ensure that stronger GDP growth translates into expanding businesses, productive employment, rising real incomes and a steady reduction in poverty,” the CPPE said.
