*Warns on capacity gaps, demands urgent reforms in cargo handling, vessel turnaround, rail evacuation and trade facilitation
Nigeria’s existing seaport infrastructure lacks the capacity to support President Bola Tinubu’s ambition of building a $1 trillion economy by 2030 unless urgent and far-reaching reforms are undertaken, Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) Emeka Akabogu, has warned.
Akabogu made this known while delivering a keynote address at the Unity Conference organised by the Network of Nigeria Maritime Journalists (NNMJ) at the Lagos Airport Hotel, Ikeja.
Speaking on the topic, “Seaport Modernisation, Trade Facilitation and Revenue Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Administration: Can Nigeria’s Seaports Carry a One Trillion Dollar Economy by 2030?” noted that the country’s current maritime infrastructure, operational efficiency and trade facilitation mechanisms were inadequate for the scale of economic activity required to achieve the target.
He, however, expressed optimism that the ambition remained achievable if government and maritime stakeholders addressed critical infrastructure gaps, improved port efficiency, expanded shipping capacity and strengthened Nigeria’s export base.
According to him, the $1 trillion economic target provides a measurable national ambition and timeline for policymakers, but achieving it requires a corresponding transformation of the country’s maritime gateways.
“My very honest answer to the question is no. One trillion dollars by 2030, as presently constituted, our seaports are unable to carry it,” he declared.
Akabogu explained that Nigeria would need to expand its economy almost threefold from its current estimated size to achieve the target, requiring annual economic growth of approximately 26.8 per cent if the currency maintains its present value.
He contrasted this requirement with Nigeria’s recent growth performance of about three per cent and the International Monetary Fund’s projection of growth reaching approximately nine per cent by 2030.
He argued that the gap demonstrated the enormous economic and infrastructural work required to realise the presidential ambition.
The maritime expert stressed that GDP growth could not be achieved without increased economic activity, exports, imports and the capacity to move goods efficiently through the country’s ports.
Container traffic falls short of target
Using comparative data from countries with trillion-dollar economies, including Saudi Arabia, Akabogu highlighted the enormous gap between Nigeria’s current container-handling capacity and the volume required to support a $1 trillion economy.
He disclosed that Nigeria handled approximately 1.6 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2023, 1.75 million in 2024 and 2.1 million in 2025.
Although the increase represented significant progress compared with the average of between one million and 1.3 million containers recorded over the preceding decade, he said the current growth trajectory would only deliver approximately 3.6 million TEUs annually by 2030.
According to him, Nigeria needs to handle between 5.3 million and 7.5 million containers annually to support the proposed economic expansion.
He similarly identified a significant shortfall in general cargo capacity, noting that the country’s ports handled approximately 113 million tonnes in 2025.
At the current growth rate, the figure could reach 230 million tonnes by 2030, compared with the estimated requirement of between 313 million and 442 million tonnes.
Akabogu also observed that a substantial proportion of the growth in cargo volumes was linked to increased petroleum and liquid cargo movements, particularly activities associated with the Dangote Refinery.
He warned that overdependence on this segment could undermine the sustainability of port growth if other sectors, especially manufacturing and non-oil exports, failed to expand.
Nigeria needs more than 10,000 ship calls
On vessel traffic, Akabogu disclosed that ship calls increased from 3,957 in 2022 to 3,791 in 2023, 4,005 in 2024 and 4,477 in 2025.
However, projections based on the existing growth pattern indicate that Nigeria could record approximately 5,340 ship calls by 2030.
He said the country would instead require between 10,300 and 10,800 ship calls annually to sustain the level of maritime activity associated with a trillion-dollar economy.
He also identified vessel turnaround time as a major obstacle to port competitiveness.
According to him, Nigeria’s average vessel turnaround time increased from 4.7 days in 2023 to five days in 2025, with projections indicating that it could rise to 6.1 days by 2030 if the current trend continued.
He said the country should instead target a maximum turnaround time of 3.3 days to reduce shipping costs, improve vessel profitability and lower the cost of imported goods.
Akabogu further highlighted berth occupancy as another critical performance indicator, explaining that Nigeria’s current trajectory could deliver approximately 50 per cent occupancy by 2030, against the minimum 80 per cent he considered necessary to support the projected level of economic activity.
90% cargo evacuation by road unsustainable
The maritime lawyer also raised concerns over Nigeria’s dependence on road transportation for cargo evacuation, revealing that approximately 90 per cent of goods leaving the country’s ports are transported by road, while rail accounts for only about three per cent.
He warned that without a deliberate shift towards rail and other intermodal transportation systems, increased port activity could turn the country’s seaports into congestion centres rather than engines of economic growth.
He called for rail evacuation to account for at least 25 to 30 per cent of cargo movement, arguing that this would improve efficiency, reduce pressure on port access roads and facilitate the movement of goods to inland markets.
On non-oil exports, Akabogu said Nigeria must substantially expand export volumes by 2030 to generate the foreign exchange required to support the trillion-dollar ambition.
He equally stressed the need to expand the country’s indigenous shipping fleet, noting that available estimates put the number of active Nigerian-registered vessels at approximately 325.
He said Nigeria would require at least 920 active vessels to support the projected maritime economy, although he suggested that the actual requirement could be significantly higher.
Citing the scale of shipping operations associated with the Dangote industrial complex, he argued that Nigeria must develop the capacity to own and operate more tankers, barges and other commercial vessels instead of depending excessively on foreign shipping interests.
Single Window project must succeed
Turning to trade facilitation, Akabogu identified the successful implementation of the National Single Window project as one of the most important reforms needed to transform Nigeria’s ports.
He explained that the platform should eliminate repetitive documentation and regulatory bottlenecks by allowing importers and exporters to submit relevant information once for processing by all government agencies operating within the port environment.
He specifically mentioned agencies such as the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control, Standards Organisation of Nigeria, quarantine authorities and the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency.
According to him, the system should provide defined timelines for regulatory approvals, with compliant cargoes processed through a green channel while consignments requiring further scrutiny are directed to separate inspection procedures.
He expressed concern that some relevant regulatory agencies were yet to be fully integrated into the platform, warning that without a strong presidential directive and strict enforcement, the project could suffer the same fate as previous attempts to establish a national single-window system.
“There must be a presidential mandate. People must lose their jobs for not ensuring that the timelines for getting onboarded onto the single-window platform are met,” he said.
As part of his recommendations, Akabogu urged the Nigerian Ports Authority, Customs and other relevant maritime regulators to work towards ensuring that cargoes leave Nigerian ports within a maximum of seven days as an initial target.
He said the country must subsequently reduce cargo dwell time further, arguing that delays increase the cost of doing business, weaken port competitiveness and expose importers and exporters to additional financial risks.
He also cited the need to improve Nigeria’s performance in international logistics and port connectivity indices, warning that efficiency gains recorded at some facilities must not be allowed to deteriorate.
Using Lekki Port as an example, he noted that its vessel turnaround time, which was about two days at the end of 2025, had subsequently increased, describing the development as a reversal that required urgent attention.
He said modernisation should be measured not by infrastructure announcements alone but by demonstrable improvements in operational performance.
Questions port revenue and maritime data
On revenue generation, Akabogu expressed concern over what he described as the relatively low earnings recorded by Nigeria’s port system compared with the volume of international trade undertaken by the country.
Citing audited financial figures available to him, he disclosed that the Nigerian Ports Authority recorded revenue of approximately N894 billion in 2024.
He argued that the figure was inadequate when measured against the scale of Nigeria’s foreign trade, suggesting that substantial economic value was being lost through inefficiencies, freight payments, operational delays and other leakages.
He also referenced the estimated $1.5 billion spent annually on war-risk insurance premiums and approximately $4.5 billion in freight-related expenditure, highlighting the financial burden associated with Nigeria’s dependence on foreign maritime operators and the wider international shipping market.
The SAN further identified inadequate maritime statistics as a major obstacle to effective policymaking and investment planning.
He called on NIMASA and the Nigerian Ports Authority to improve data collection and disclosure, particularly regarding the number of active vessels operating in Nigeria, their ownership, capacity, trading routes and utilisation levels.
