- Adeleke, Oyebamiji, Salaam, Others Battle For Osun
- Their Strengths, Weaknesses: Factors that Will Determine Winner
- Tinubu Calls For Peaceful Polls
- Charges Security Agencies To Protect Voters, INEC Officials
After months of intense campaigns, political realignments, endorsements, accusations and counter-accusations, the moment of reckoning has arrived in Osun State.
Today, Saturday, August 15, a little less than two million registered voters are expected to troop out across the state’s 30 local government areas to decide who occupies the Bola Ige House for the next four years.
The election features 15 candidates, but the contest has largely narrowed to incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, APC’s Bola Oyebamiji and former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Interestingly, the three leading contenders are all from Osun West Senatorial District — Adeleke from Ede, Oyebamiji from Ikire and Salaam from Ejigbo — turning the election into an unusual battle for influence within the same senatorial district.
Adeleke: Incumbency, Projects And Grassroots Appeal
For Governor Ademola Adeleke, the election is a referendum on his four-year administration.
The incumbent goes into the poll with the obvious advantage of occupying the Government House and the machinery of incumbency. His campaign has highlighted infrastructure projects, interventions in the health and education sectors, workers’ welfare and what his administration describes as a people-oriented style of governance.
Supporters point to his visibility across the state and endorsements from various community and traditional groups as evidence of grassroots acceptance.
His biggest strength, however, may be his ability to mobilise supporters around his personal political brand. Adeleke has built a strong following since his emergence in 2022 and is seeking to turn that popularity into a second term.
But incumbency is also his biggest vulnerability.
Every unfulfilled promise, controversial decision or complaint against his administration can be weaponised by the opposition. His opponents have questioned aspects of his record and accused his government of overstating its achievements.
The governor therefore faces a simple but difficult question at the ballot box: Have the last four years been good enough for Osun voters to give him another four?
Oyebamiji: APC Machinery And Federal Connection
For Bola Oyebamiji, the election represents the APC’s bid to reclaim Osun after losing the governorship to Adeleke in 2022.
Oyebamiji brings considerable political and administrative experience to the contest, having served as Osun State Commissioner for Finance and later as Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority.
His strongest card is the APC structure and its control of the Federal Government. The party is seeking to turn President Bola Tinubu’s political influence and the APC’s national machinery into votes for its candidate. Analysts have identified the support of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola and the federal connection as major advantages for Oyebamiji.
The APC candidate has also embarked on extensive grassroots mobilisation, with supporters insisting that his technocratic background and experience in public finance make him better positioned to manage the state’s resources.
But Oyebamiji faces the classic challenge of an opposition candidate: convincing voters to replace an incumbent who is still campaigning on visible projects.
He must also overcome the APC’s baggage in the state, particularly memories of the party’s previous administration and the political divisions that have historically affected its fortunes in Osun.
For Oyebamiji, the election is therefore not simply about selling his credentials. It is also about persuading voters that an APC return represents a better alternative.
Salaam: The Third Force Waiting To Spring A Surprise
Najeem Salaam enters the race as the candidate capable of disrupting what increasingly looks like a two-horse contest.
The former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly is flying the flag of the ADC and has political roots stretching across the state. He is also associated with former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, giving him an established political network.
Salaam’s greatest strength is his attempt to position himself as an alternative to both the incumbent and the APC.
That could appeal to voters dissatisfied with Adeleke but unwilling to return to the APC.
His weakness, however, is equally obvious: the ADC does not possess the statewide political structure of Accord or APC.
With the contest dominated by the two bigger political machines, Salaam needs a strong turnout from his core supporters and substantial protest votes from voters who reject the two leading candidates.
What Could Decide Osun?
Several factors could determine the outcome.
Performance: Adeleke is asking voters to judge his record.
Change: Oyebamiji is asking voters to change government and return the APC to power.
Protest: Salaam is hoping dissatisfied voters will break away from the two dominant camps.
Grassroots machinery: With 30 local government areas and 332 wards in play, the ability of each party to move supporters to polling units could prove decisive. Oyebamiji’s campaign has specifically invested heavily in polling-unit mobilisation.
Security and credibility: The atmosphere surrounding the election has also generated concern, with observers warning about violence and voter inducement.
The Final Battle
The Osun election has all the ingredients of a political thriller.
Adeleke wants continuity.
Oyebamiji wants change.
Salaam wants to prove that a third force can break the two-party-style dominance.
And beneath the political rhetoric is a much bigger question: Will Osun voters reward incumbency, embrace the APC’s promise of a fresh start, or spring an upset by backing the ADC’s alternative?
By tonight, the campaigns, endorsements and political calculations will give way to the only verdict that matters — the verdict of the Osun electorate.
Meanwhile, President Bola Tinubu has thrown his weight behind a peaceful and credible Osun State governorship election, directing security agencies to deal decisively with troublemakers and protect voters and electoral officials during Saturday’s poll.
With 15 candidates in the race, Tinubu urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to deliver an election that Nigerians can trust.
In a statement issued on Friday by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the President charged INEC to ensure that the August 15 election is “transparent, free and fair,” stressing that the exercise would be a crucial test of the commission’s readiness for the 2027 general elections.
“As the people of Osun State head to the polling units to elect who will govern them in the next four years, I call on the Independent National Electoral Commission to ensure orderly conduct of the election,” Tinubu said.
“The election must be transparent, free and fair. I urge INEC to ensure the integrity of the process.”
The President warned that the commission could not afford to stumble in what he described as the last off-cycle election before the 2027 polls.
“INEC must use this last off-cycle election as a test case to demonstrate to Nigerians their full preparedness for the 2027 polls,” he declared.
Tinubu also placed security agencies on high alert, charging the Inspector-General of Police and other security chiefs deployed for the election to ensure maximum protection at polling units.
“I have charged the Inspector-General of Police and other heads of security outfits taking part in the election to provide maximum security at polling units. No room should be allowed for troublemakers to disrupt the process,” he said.
The President specifically demanded protection for voters and electoral officials, saying nobody should be intimidated or prevented from exercising their constitutional rights.
“Electoral officials and voters must be protected so they can perform their civic duties without fear or intimidation,” he added.
Tinubu further urged Osun voters to turn out in large numbers and freely choose their preferred candidates, assuring them that measures had been put in place to guarantee their safety before, during and after the election.
“Voters should feel confident to go out in their numbers to vote for the candidate of their choice as all measures necessary to ensure a peaceful, free and fair election have been put in place,” he said.
The President insisted that the credibility of the Osun election would ultimately be measured by whether the result accurately reflects the choice of the electorate.
“Our elections must be credible, and the outcome of the Osun Governorship election must reflect the will of the people,” Tinubu declared.
