Nigeria’s economic landscape is bracing for a dramatic shake-up as the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) delivers a hard-hitting verdict on the Federal Government’s 2026 fiscal policy measures.
The economic think-tank described them as a decisive pivot toward industrialisation that could either ignite local production or squeeze import-reliant businesses to the brink.
In a strongly worded policy brief released Sunday, CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the sweeping reforms signal a clear break from Nigeria’s long-standing import-dependent model, warning that businesses must urgently reposition or risk being left behind.
“The overarching message is unmistakable — Nigeria is deliberately transitioning from an import-dependent economy to one anchored on domestic production and value addition,” Yusuf declared.
Tariff Hikes Trigger Market Shockwaves
At the heart of the policy are aggressive tariff increases on 192 categories of imported finished goods, with combined duties now ranging between 20% and 70% — a move CPPE says will significantly raise the cost of imports and tilt the market in favour of local producers.
From food and plastics to textiles and metal products, the impact is expected to be immediate and far-reaching.
“This measure raises the landing cost of imports and strengthens the competitive position of domestic producers,” Yusuf said, adding that the policy could reshape market dynamics across multiple sectors.
The organisation insists the new regime will force a structural reset, pushing investors toward local manufacturing expansion, backward integration across supply chains
and heavy investment in import-substitution industries.
Industries such as agro-processing, packaging, and basic metals are already being tipped as major winners in the new order.
Relief for Manufacturers, Pressure for Traders
In a calculated balancing act, the government has slashed tariffs on industrial inputs, machinery, and chemicals, while introducing a National List of 127 items that now enjoy concessional tariffs of 0–10%.
CPPE describes this as a “coherent and strategic industrial policy” designed to cut production costs and boost competitiveness.
“Higher tariffs on finished goods alongside lower tariffs on inputs clearly signal a structured industrialisation pathway,” Yusuf noted.
But while manufacturers celebrate, import-dependent businesses face a grim reality.
According to CPPE, the policy will trigger rising costs for trading firms, increased working capital pressures, shrinking profit margins and declining sales volumes.
“Import-dependent sectors face structural transition risks as the economy pivots toward production,” the report warned.
Petroleum Policy Gap Raises Red Flag
Despite the sweeping reforms, CPPE raised alarm over what it called a glaring omission in the petroleum sector, arguing that local refiners remain dangerously exposed.
“Domestic refineries operate with virtually no tariff protection — an evident policy gap,” Yusuf said, urging the government to shield the sector and protect billions in recent investments.
He warned that failure to act could undermine Nigeria’s push for energy self-sufficiency and worsen foreign exchange pressures.
Vehicle Tariffs Slammed as ‘Excessive’
The think tank also took aim at the government’s over 50% effective tariff burden on used vehicles, calling it punitive and economically damaging.
“This is excessively high for an economy that relies predominantly on road transportation,” CPPE stated.
The group argued that the policy is: pricing out the middle class, hurting mobility and logistics and stifling job creation in e-hailing and transport services.
It called for an urgent reduction to 25% maximum, warning that current rates could deepen unemployment and economic hardship.
Push for Cheaper Transport and Clean Energy
In a series of bold recommendations, CPPE urged the government to cut import duty on mass transit buses to 5% and grant VAT waivers, reduce tariffs on renewable energy equipment like batteries and inverters, support local automobile assembly through zero-duty CKD parts and minimal SKD tariffs
“Current energy and transport costs are unsustainable for households and businesses,” Yusuf stressed, adding that reforms in these areas are critical to economic productivity and citizen welfare.
Investors Told: Adapt or Be Left Behind
With the policy now in motion, CPPE issued a blunt warning to investors — evolve or risk irrelevance.
The group advised businesses to shift from trading to production, deepen local sourcing, align with industrial policy priorities and build flexibility to survive changing tariff regimes.
“The winners in this new landscape will be those who align with the domestic production agenda and integrate into local value chains,” Yusuf concluded
A High-Stakes Economic Gamble
While CPPE described the reforms as “bold and necessary”, it made clear that the transition will not be painless.
The 2026 fiscal policy, it said, is a high-stakes gamble — one that could unlock industrial growth and economic resilience, but also trigger significant disruption for unprepared sectors.
