- ·Nigeria Maintains Position As Africa’s Biggest Crude Producer Despite Dip In Output
The ongoing trade tariff by the United States has forced the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut its demand growth forecast.
This development was contained in the cartel’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Monday, April 14, 2025.
The cartel said the data received in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 also influenced the decision.
The oil alliance said demand for crude oil is expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 2026, down about 150,000 bpd from its previous estimates.
“The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y,” OPEC said.
“This minor adjustment is mainly due to received data for Q1/25 and the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs.
“In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), oil demand is expected to grow by 0.04 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by almost 1.25 mb/d in 2025.”
OPEC said the forecast for “global oil demand growth in 2026 is revised down slightly to about 1.3 mb/d”.
“The OECD is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026,” the oil alliance said.
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Moreso, OPEC also lowered the global economy growth forecast to 3.0 percent for 2025.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, the near-term trajectory is now subject to higher uncertainty given the recent tariff-related dynamics,” OPEC said.
Consequently, the international organisation said the global economic growth forecasts are “revised down slightly to 3.0% for 2025, and to 3.1% for 2026”.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s crude oil production dipped to 1.4mbpd in March 2025, from 1.46mbpd in the previous month, OPEC disclosed.
However, the country retained its position as the largest crude oil producer in Africa despite the decline in output.
According to the report, despite the decline, Nigeria’s oil output was the largest in Africa, surpassing Algeria and Congo.
OPEC said its data was based on direct communication.
Sustaining the momentum from February, Nigeria surpassed Algeria, which produced 909,000 bpd and Congo, which recorded 263,000 bpd.
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However, according to data sourced from secondary sources, OPEC said Nigeria produced 1.51 million bpd in March as against 1.54 million bpd in February.
“Total DoC crude oil production averaged 41.02 mb/d in March 2025, which is 37 tb/d lower, m-o-m,” OPEC said.
On April 12, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said the country’s oil production decreased to 1,400,783 bpd in March.
Although oil output dropped in March, NUPRC said the average crude oil production is 93 per cent of the 1.5mbpd quota set for Nigeria by OPEC.
