Recently, some editors interviewed Olisa Agbakoba, a former president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), ahead of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s one-year anniversary. He evaluated Tinubu’s performance over the course of 365 days by comparing it to the benchmark established by Franklin D. Roosevelt, a previous US president. Agbakoba discussed the functions of the ministries, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), what was overlooked in the previous year, and the primary areas that needed attention.
One year is gone. The new administration came in with a lot of complaints about the challenges it inherited. Looking at what has been achieved vis-à-vis what was promised, what would be you thought?
In the context of the agenda of the President, one year is gone, so it’s a good thing that even the President himself got his ministers to address the press on their performances. So, we can see what has happened. I think the challenges inherited, and I think that’s something that every President always says. ‘I had a big challenge coming in; therefore, it limits my governance capacity.’ I don’t want to look at that as an excuse. President Bola Tinubu’s first year in office has laid the groundwork for significant progress, with notable achievements in various sectors. The right policy choices have been put in place, but implementation has been the challenge. To fully realise his transformative vision and deliver on his campaign promises, it is crucial for the government to focus on key areas that will make the most impact, such as security, power, and an emergency industrial revolution. If Tinubu can solve these critical issues, it will release kinetic energy and accelerate progress
In his first year in office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made notable progress across several areas outlined in his “Renewed Hope” campaign manifesto. Some of his achievements are as follows: Economy: Removed fuel subsidy and floated exchange rate to save costs and unify FX markets, despite short-term pains. Provided welfare palliatives, established bodies to facilitate consumer credit and student loans, set up a tax reforms committee. Security: Approved a committee on modalities for state police, invested in military equipment and food security measures. Governance: Signed a new Electricity Act allowing states and private players in the power sector. Infrastructure: Secured funding for major seaport, rail, road, and power plant projects. Foreign Policy: Positioned Nigeria as a stabilising force in ECOWAS, boosted FDI inflows over $15 billion, enforced bilateral air routes for Nigerian airlines. Oil & Gas: Rehabilitating refineries and incentivising new private refineries.
Can you take a look at the role of the CBN governor in the current economic challenges, what he is doing and what he should actually be doing?
What I think is the challenge, as far as I am concerned, is the imbalance between macroeconomic platforms of monetary policy and fiscal policy. So, in monetary policy, you see the Central Bank, in my view, taking a dominant position to correct the economy. That’s not their job. If you look at the key functions of Central Banks around the world, you hardly even know who is the Central Bank governor, but the Central Bank governor here, maybe by tradition, has become a regulator of the economy. He’s talking about inflation; he’s talking about monetary policy rates. He’s always saying something, and one of the things that has occurred is a complete mismatch of who should be doing what. Wale Edun should actually be doing more than the Central Bank governor.
The CBN governor is over-concerned with the numeric value of the Naira; so, it’s now N1,500 or thereabout. He shouldn’t be concerned about that. It is the Minister of Finance who, using fiscal policy, put money in the economy in order to stabilise hunger. Because why is it that in the US, during the COVID, the government spent about $3trillion feeding the economy in the context of the poverty in the land? We don’t see that happening, and I think that’s a big gap. So, I would be recommending in the context of the coming 365 days, to look at what President Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) did when he was in power in the 30s. There was a book called ‘Coming of a New Deal.’ If you read that book, you find similarities between American economy of the 1930s, very depressing, and the economy of Nigeria today, very depressing. The difference is that President Roosevelt had a sense of urgency. That, I think, needs to pick up here. I like the urgency of President Roosevelt; the hunger to do something. I flag that as something we need to see more. Strong leadership from the front. Passion and hunger; that’s what brings a result. The government needs to be more passionate, more urgent. If I were to hand a gold prize to the Federal Government of Nigeria, it would go to Minister Wike; he takes the prize. He is passionate. Whether you like him or not; whether you dislike his policy or not, he exhibits hunger; that’s what brings result. Mr. Trump is not someone I would say am a fan of, but he talks tough; he talks with passion. Mr. Biden does not. That’s why Mr. Trump is leading in the polls. In the next 365 days, I need to see more passion in the Tinubu administration. I need to see more urgency. I need to see more Wikes in government. If we had 10 Wikes, Nigeria would change because that’s what we need- passion and energy. And in the broadcast made by President Roosevelt upon being inaugurated, he talked about a sense of urgency. You don’t cook okra soup in one week; you cook it under one hour. So, I would Tinubu to bring in this urgency. If there is anyone in government who is unable to cross that mark of passion, he should not be there. Now, passion is not enough. The question therefore, is what is the policy? I’ve already said there’s a misalignment between the macroeconomic pillars of fiscal and monetary. There’s too much concentration on the numeric value of the naira against the dollar.
First of all, I even question the validity and legality of the Central Bank trying to fix values. Is that its job? No. The job of the Central Bank is financial system stability. That’s the job. I don’t know where this thing came in that it is the business of the Central Bank governor. Why are they not talking about fixing the currency against the Chinese currency? So, I would recommend that in the second year going, the CBN should depart from overshooting its remit and stay with monetary policy. Now, the fiscal policy issue is where we have a challenge.
In the President’s Renewed Hope agenda, there are a number of items he is pursuing; which areas do you think he needs to pay greater attention to, judging from what has happened in the last one year?
If you want the value of the naira to strengthen, there’s only one thing you must do. You must produce. So, the question is what is our manufacturing sector doing? The President ought to declare a state of emergency in the industrial sector because nothing is happening. For him to achieve all these, the agenda of Mr. President, which is Renewed Hope, needs to be focused. You can’t do everything. You can’t do 10 things. I would advise the President to focus on three important matters. The first is the security architecture. When I spoke to the President about a month ago, I said you cannot use conventional war to win an irregular war. Conventional armies fight against each other.
The war in Nigeria is not conventional. Anybody who reads Che Guevara’s book on guerrilla warfare will know that you can’t defeat any army that is using irregular means, which is why America lost to Vietnam. Now, the consequence of insecurity in Nigeria can be put in the way I asked my colleague here, suppose you are all businessmen, all of you sitting around here with millions of dollars. You are asking, Oga, where do we go and invest? I say, ah, I’ve got an idea of where we should go to invest. And you ask me, where is that? And I tell you, we shall go to Gaza. Will you go to Gaza? No. So, let us then ask, is Nigeria far from Gaza? Nigeria is a very unstable country in the context of insecurity-
killings, kidnappings, banditry, thuggery, unemployment, lack of funds- I think the government underestimates the issue of insecurity. Billions of dollars spent on insecurity hasn’t worked.
I think President Buhari borrowed about $3billion, if I’m right. About $3 billion. No result.
So, you see the Army and the Air Force, they are buying new helicopters, they are flying and landing. But there was an important point that the Presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) made, because he’s from the area. He said, ‘I’m surprised that this is happening; because when the plane is landing into Yola airport, I can see everything. I can even see people running around in Sambisa Forest. So, how is they are not seeing this?’ How are they not seeing it? It beats me. So, why is it that this forest seems impregnable? It shows that the tools are wrong. I recommend to Nigeria what I called ‘The Treaty of the National Order.’ In the South East, for instance, we have Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB)- rightly or wrongly. The question to ask is, is it a correct strategy to detain Nnamdi Kanu and so the South East uses it as an opportunity? I don’t think so. If Nnamdi Kanu says that the Biafra thing is hot, he has a right to say so.
But the question would be whether it would be something that would be endorsed in the South East. I would simply conduct a referendum. Now, if the referendum shows that Nnamdi Kanu is right, then that’s it. That’s why I’ve said that the theory of Nigeria’s indivisibility is wrong. We must stop this issue of every president saying that Nigeria is indivisible. It is not. You have to get the consent of Nigerians, and I endorse fully the definition of democracy set out by President Olusegun Obasanjo. We have to agree. So, it is that agreement or disagreement or lack of policy of the government that is causing the insecurity. So that’s the policy that needs to change for peace to occur. Now, if peace occurs, because you have dealt with the insecurity, it will unleash a lot. Agriculture will be one. Do you know that the North can sustain the entire Africa? So, we’ve locked down trillions of dollars in the North because of insecurity. That’s the first thing I would flag. Focus on resolving the insecurity problem in the first three months of the second year. The second one is power. Power must be fixed.
Power is like a ship in deep water that goes through and there are ripples. When there’s power, you create employment at different levels.
And the third is the one I first mentioned. Because if you tackle insecurity and resolve it, get Nigerians to buy into it, things will improve. I like what the late Herbert Wigwe said when he went to the university he was establishing, and he spoke in pidgin. He said, it belongs to you. Burn it down if you like. It’s yours. I’ve just enabled it. So, the people protected it. They didn’t see Hebert Wigwe; ah, that rich man from Lagos. They said this is our own. If you burn it, we’re in trouble. So, anyone who dares to go to steal anything, they would deal with that person. So, that’s what happens. If you generate the passion of Nigerians to be truly Nigerians, not just in football, you will see the energy that will come. So that’s the key point. With power resolved; insecurity resolved; business will flourish automatically because you have Nigerians who are very entrepreneurial. This issue of unemployment, look, for those of us who did the ‘Psychology of Crime,’ I did that as my Master’s thesis at the London School of Economics in 1980. The study showed that the psychology of crime is not an inborn thing. It is environmental (physical environment). Nobody is born a thief.
If you have hungry people, you can’t have a country. That’s a point that must be emphasized. Nigerians are extremely hungry. The poverty levels are deeper than we know. So, when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases their reports from time to time, I put them in the dustbin. The absolute report that judges what Nigerians are going through is given to me every Monday by who? By my driver.
I ask him, how was the day; how was the weekend? He says, ‘Oga things are tough.’ So, that is how I judge it. The government must leave statistical economists like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and ask Nigerians.
