N2,081/$1 Report, IMF Kicks, Denies Publishing Exchange Rate Forecasts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has denied media reports earlier in the week that it projected that the Naira may exchange at N2,081/$1 in the official foreign exchange market in 2024.

This denial was contained in a statement on Friday by IMF’s Resident Representative for Nigeria Christian Ebeke.

Ebeke highlighted that the origin of the misreporting traces back to an IMF report crafted towards the end of 2023, which only recently became public.

This report, Ebeke stressed rather than providing exchange rate predictions, presented a hypothetical downside scenario analysis. This exercise aimed to stress test key macroeconomic variables against potential adverse external shocks.

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The statement reads: “Recent articles in the Nigerian press that quote a specific naira/US dollar exchange rate projection by the IMF are incorrect. The IMF does not publish exchange rate forecasts.

“The articles seem to draw on an IMF report prepared in late 2023 that was recently published. The report includes a hypothetical downside scenario exercise that stress tests key macroeconomic variables, mainly in response to hypothetical adverse exogenous shocks”.

It would be recalled that the IMF’s recent post-financing assessment report on Nigeria offers a cautionary outlook, projecting a potentially stark economic downturn should essential policy adjustments fail to materialise.

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The report warns of a skyrocketing inflation rate, possibly reaching 44%, should the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) not enforce significant monetary tightening measures. This dire prediction is rooted in a scenario where the naira faces intensified pressures, especially with the looming threat of an early 2024 climate shock.