- Says Food Prices Remained One Of The Strongest Drivers Of Inflation During Month In Review
- Geopolitical Shocks Drive Inflation Higher, But Disinflation Trend Holds, CPPE Warns
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.93 per cent in May 2026, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 140.7 in May 2026, representing a 2.4-point rise from the previous month’s 138.3, indicating continued upward pressure on consumer prices across the economy.
According to the report, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at 1.75 per cent in May 2026. This represents a decline of 0.39 percentage points compared to April 2026, when the rate was 2.13 per cent.
Although the month-on-month inflation rate moderated, the annual inflation rate continued its upward trend, rising from 15.38 per cent in March to 15.69 per cent in April before reaching 15.93 per cent in May.
The latest record marks the third consecutive hike in 2026.
While inflation remains considerably lower than the levels recorded a year ago, consumer prices continue to rise, with the annual inflation rate increasing for the third consecutive month amid persistent pressures from food, services, and other core components of the economy as global tensions and insecurity persist.
According to the NBS, “In May 2026, the headline inflation rate on a month-on-month basis was 1.75 per cent, which was 0.39 per cent lower than the rate recorded in April 2026 (2.13 per cent). This means that in May 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in April 2026.”
“On a year-on-year basis, the Headline inflation rate rose to 15.93 per cent, up from 15.69 per cent in April 2026 and down from 26.06 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (May 2025). Looking at the movement, the May 2026 Headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.24 per cent compared to the April 2026 Headline inflation rate,” the report read.
The latest figure, however, remained substantially below the 26.06 per cent recorded in May 2025, highlighting the significant easing in inflationary pressures compared with a year earlier. The NBS noted that the May inflation rate was 0.24 percentage points higher than the 15.69 per cent recorded in April.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 6.38 percentage points of the annual inflation rate, according to an analysis of the inflation basket.
Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 2.06 percentage points, transport accounted for 1.70 percentage points, while housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels contributed 1.34 percentage points.
Education services contributed 0.99 percentage points to headline inflation, followed by health at 0.97 percentage points and clothing and footwear at 0.80 percentage points. Information and communication, as well as personal care and miscellaneous goods and services, each contributed 0.52 percentage points.
The report further showed that average inflation for the 12 months ending May 2026 stood at 18.36 per cent, compared with 30.57 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
The NBS reported that food inflation stood at 16.96 per cent year-on-year in May, compared with 24.55 per cent in the corresponding month of 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation eased to 2.98 per cent from 3.63 per cent recorded in April.
According to the report, the increase in food prices was driven by the rising cost of staple items, including onions, maize grains, melon, water yam, cassava flour, crayfish, fresh pepper, tomatoes, wheat grain, cassava tubers, yam tubers, sweet potatoes, ginger, plantain, and cowpea.
“The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending May 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 16.99 per cent, which was 16.22 percentage points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in May 2025 (33.21 per cent),” the report stated.
The report also showed persistent inflationary pressures outside food and energy.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 16.82 per cent year-on-year in May, compared with 24.92 per cent in May 2025. On a month-on-month basis, however, core inflation accelerated sharply to 1.94 per cent from 1.03 per cent in April.
This suggests that underlying price pressures in the broader economy strengthened during the month despite the moderation in headline and food inflation on a monthly basis.
Urban inflation was recorded at 16.07 per cent year-on-year in May, while monthly urban inflation rose to 1.99 per cent from 1.86 per cent in April. The 12-month average urban inflation rate stood at 18.27 per cent, significantly lower than the 32.55 per cent recorded a year earlier.
In rural areas, inflation stood at 15.60 per cent year-on-year. Monthly rural inflation slowed markedly to 1.17 per cent from 2.80 per cent in April, while the 12-month average rural inflation rate eased to 18.19 per cent from 28.36 per cent recorded in May 2025.
Further analysis of the report showed that services inflation remained elevated at 17.92 per cent year-on-year and 2.84 per cent month-on-month.
Imported food inflation stood at 14.60 per cent annually and 2.28 per cent monthly, while goods inflation was recorded at 6.62 per cent year-on-year and 0.73 per cent month-on-month. Energy inflation stood at 5.73 per cent year-on-year and 0.72 per cent month-on-month.
At the state level, Yobe recorded the highest headline inflation rate on a year-on-year basis at 24.94 per cent, followed by Anambra at 23.29 per cent and Sokoto at 22.60 per cent.
Niger recorded the lowest annual inflation rate at 3.07 per cent, followed by Plateau at 7.10 per cent and Edo at 7.73 per cent.
On a month-on-month basis, Benue recorded the highest increase in headline inflation at 8.23 per cent, followed by Bayelsa at 7.62 per cent and Borno at 7.29 per cent.
Niger recorded a decline of 4.55 per cent, while Zamfara and Taraba recorded declines of 3.36 per cent and 2.67 per cent, respectively.
The report also showed wide variations in food inflation across states. Adamawa recorded the highest annual food inflation rate at 29.62 per cent, followed by Kwara at 28.47 per cent and Rivers at 28.40 per cent. Borno recorded food deflation of 6.53 per cent, while Taraba and Bayelsa recorded the slowest increases at 1.13 per cent and 5.99 per cent respectively.
On a month-on-month basis, Bauchi recorded the highest food inflation rate at 7.73 per cent, followed by Ogun at 6.86 per cent and Jigawa at 6.69 per cent. Niger, Katsina, and Gombe recorded food price declines of 3.54 per cent, 3.48 per cent, and 2.22 per cent, respectively.
Reacting, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) in its Policy Brief on the May 2026 Inflation Report, noted that headline inflation rose by 0.24 percentage points, climbing from 15.69% in April to 15.93% in May 2026, largely driven by external shocks.
According to the organisation, “the continuing impact of recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global energy markets and supply chains” has been a key inflationary trigger, pushing up crude oil prices, marine insurance costs, shipping disruptions, and import expenses, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer, CPPE noted.
However, the group stressed that the broader trend shows some relief beneath the surface.
“Headline inflation moderated on a month-on-month basis from 2.13% in April to 1.75% in May, while food inflation eased from 3.63% to 2.98%,” the CPPE noted, describing this as evidence that “although inflationary pressures persist, the pace of price escalation is slowing.”
It further highlighted that the current inflation level remains significantly below the 26.06% recorded in May 2025, calling it a reflection of “substantial disinflation achieved over the past year.”
Food, transport and energy under pressure
The report identified food, transportation, housing, energy, health, and education as the dominant inflation drivers, jointly accounting for about 87% of headline inflation.
“Food inflation at 16.96% remains particularly concerning,” the organisation warned, noting that it continues to outpace headline inflation and erode household purchasing power.
It also pointed to insecurity in farming regions as a major structural factor worsening food prices.
“A major structural factor behind elevated food prices is the persistent insecurity in key food-producing regions,” the report stated. “This has displaced farming communities, reduced cultivated acreage, disrupted agricultural supply chains and increased transportation costs.”
The CPPE argued that insecurity is now both a security and economic challenge, adding that “tackling insecurity is not only a security imperative; it is also a critical inflation-management strategy.”
Policy shift urged
On policy direction, the group maintained that Nigeria’s inflation challenge is largely cost-driven rather than demand-driven, urging government to focus less on monetary tightening and more on structural reforms.
“The inflation challenge remains largely cost-push in nature,” the report said. “The solution lies less in monetary tightening and more in addressing structural drivers of production and distribution costs.”
It recommended investments in food security, logistics infrastructure, mass transit systems, rail transport, energy stability, and improved security in rural communities.
Cautious optimism on outlook
Despite persistent pressures, the CPPE expressed cautious optimism about the medium-term outlook, citing easing geopolitical tensions and a decline in crude oil prices.
“The recent diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East and the moderation of crude oil prices from about $90 per barrel to approximately $83 per barrel provide grounds for cautious optimism,” it stated.
The organisation added that if global and domestic conditions continue to stabilise, inflationary pressures could begin to ease from the third quarter of 2026.
For now, it concluded, the inflation uptick “appears to be more of an external shock phenomenon and domestic structural headwinds than a reflection of domestic macroeconomic instability.”
In his concluding remarks, CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, urged policymakers to focus on fundamentals affecting everyday Nigerians.
“The policy priority should therefore be to tackle the structural cost drivers of inflation, particularly insecurity, food supply constraints, transportation costs and energy prices,” Yusuf said. “These are the pressure points that matter most to citizens’ welfare and business competitiveness.”
